In zero-sum negotiations, assess your opponent’s intelligence; if they are smarter, consider using a mixed strategy to act randomly or a minimax strategy to minimize potential losses, while being cautious not to misapply these tactics outside zero-sum contexts.

Sabermetrics has transformed sports analytics, exemplified by Shane Battier’s use of data to exploit Kobe Bryant’s weaknesses, highlighting the importance of data-driven decision-making to identify and capitalize on competitors’ vulnerabilities while balancing intuition and qualitative assessments.

In this lesson, Julia Galef explains “The Planning Fallacy,” the tendency to underestimate task duration due to overconfidence, and offers strategies to plan more realistically by acknowledging that most tasks will take longer than expected.

Lawrence Summers emphasizes that effective decision-making relies on rationality and thorough consideration of risks and alternatives, rather than solely on outcomes, as hindsight reveals flaws in the deliberative process that may not have been evident initially.

In this lesson, Lawrence Summers outlines two key principles for decision-making: prioritize reversible over irreversible errors and conduct a cost-benefit analysis during implementation to ensure that changes are beneficial rather than detrimental.

In this lesson, Lawrence Summers emphasizes a scientific approach to complex decision-making by exploring alternatives, optimizing strategies, and evaluating their consequences to determine the most desirable and feasible solution.

Incorporating critical thinking into the idea development process is essential, as demonstrated by Samsung’s hasty Galaxy Note 7 launch, which prioritized speed over safety, resulting in a flawed product and costly recall.

To make better decisions, embrace probabilistic thinking by evaluating multiple future possibilities and outcomes, balancing your focus on both successes and failures to develop a more accurate understanding of potential results.

In this video lesson, Professor Michael Watkins emphasizes the importance of mental agility in strategic thinking, comparing chess to business decision-making, where each choice triggers a ripple effect, requiring a balance between big-picture awareness and attention to detail.

Professor Michael Watkins emphasizes that organizations should be analyzed by focusing on key components—strategy, structure, systems, talent, incentives, and culture—to identify interdependencies and drive improvement, similar to how one would examine an airplane engine by its essential parts.

In this video lesson, TOPGUN graduate Guy Snodgrass emphasizes the importance of proactive planning and scenario analysis to anticipate challenges in life and career, encouraging discussions with experienced mentors to navigate potential setbacks effectively.

Businesses must recognize their profound responsibilities to society when engaging with AI, as its influence on privacy and decision-making can reshape industries and everyday life, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of various fields to anticipate potential consequences.

In a video lesson, Professor Yuval Harari emphasizes the need for safeguards against AI’s potential to undermine public trust and democratic dialogue, advocating for transparency in AI identities and corporate accountability to combat misinformation while preserving genuine human expression.

In a video lesson, Professor Yuval Harari emphasizes that, like children learning to walk, AI development requires self-correcting mechanisms and collaborative efforts among institutions to effectively manage risks and address potential dangers as they arise.

Professor Yuval Harari discusses how AI’s relentless, “always-on” nature contrasts with human needs for rest, potentially disrupting our daily rhythms, privacy, and decision-making processes as power shifts from humans to machines.

A recent study reveals that adults engage with their phones every ten minutes, prompting author Nir Eyal to caution against manipulative app designs and suggest a “regret test” to evaluate their ethical implications on user habits.

In a video, international poker champion Liv Boeree outlines three common decision-making pitfalls—confirmation bias, status quo bias, and the sunk cost fallacy—and offers strategies to counteract them for improved reasoning and outcomes.

Bazerman’s bounded ethicality highlights how ordinary psychological processes can lead good people to unknowingly engage in unethical behavior, as illustrated by the Challenger tragedy, emphasizing the need for heightened awareness, firm ethical grounding, and thorough consideration of data omissions in decision-making.

Guru Madhavan emphasizes that while constraints are inevitable, effective problem-solving requires a systems-level perspective that balances specialized skills with resource efficiency, urging individuals to continually question failures to drive improvement.