Guest Thinkers — February 16, 2011

Bookmakers v. the experts: who is right?

After Mubarak who is the next Middle Eastern leader to go?

Some people have been pointing to President Salih and Yemen, but experts on the country have been pouring cold water on that line of thinking. According to Victoria Clark’s op-ed in the NY Times, “Yemen won’t fall.”

Not everyone, it seems, is enamored of expert advice. The Irish bookmaker, Paddy Power, rates Yemen as the most likely to topple its leader, putting the odds at 15/8.

Paddy Power odds – next country to topple leader:

15/8 Yemen

9/4 Jordan

7/2 Algeria

7/2 Morocco

8/1 Bahrain

12/1 Iran

16/1 Libya

16/1 Sudan

16/1 Iraq

20/1 Saudi Arabia

20/1 Syria

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7 min

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with

Laurie Santos

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