U.S. Election Notes, January 12

Mitt Romney’s convincing victory in New Hampshire—exit polls showed him winning in a wide variety of key groups—made him the first non-incumbent Republican in years to win both Iowa and New Hampshire. Conservative South Carolina seems like the last chance for a credible alternative to Romney to emerge, but opposition to Romney remains largely divided among Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. The political futures market Intrade now gives Romney an 86% chance to win the nomination—up 5 points from last week. The markets’ estimate of President Obama’s chances of winning ticked down slightly even though the unemployment rate fell slightly. The markets continue to give Republicans a good chance to win both houses of Congress, even though Democrats seem to have a slight advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot.

Political Futures Markets

Chance President Obama will win reelection: 51.0% (Intrade)

Chance Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination: 86.0% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will win control of the Senate: 76.9% (Intrade)

Chance that Republicans will maintain control of the House: 70.1% (Intrade)

Polls

President Obama’s approval rating: 45.3% (Pollster)

Mitt Romney’s favorable rating: 36.5% (Pollster)

Democratic advantage on a generic congressional ballot: 1.0% (Real Clear Politics)

Economic Indicators

U.S. unemployment rate: 8.5% (November) (BLS)

One-year growth in real personal disposable income: -1.9% (Q3 2010) (BEA)

Comments

“After three years of campaigning against Obamacare, we are on the verge of elevating the Thomas Edison of anti-free-market health care to the party’s highest honor.”—Daniel Horowitz (h/t The Daily Dish)

“Turnout in the early Republican nominating contests could be a warning sign for Romney: the participation rate in Iowa barely exceeded the state’s 2008 mark, when many GOP voters were disaffected and depressed. New Hampshire officials projected record turnout, but exit polls showed about two-fifths of the voters were non-Republicans who crossed over to participate.”—Alexander Burns (h/t Greg Sargent)

UP NEXT: the South Carolina primary on Saturday, January 21

Photo credit: Deutsch Fetisch